Change can be difficult to navigate, especially when its principal agent explicitly rejects prevailing norms. Less than five months into the job, Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh has put investors in that position, which makes charting the course of monetary policy complicated. However, there are a few things we’re reasonably sure of:

• The Fed will likely raise rates at least one more time this year.
• The Fed will likely not signal its decision going into the October meeting, as Warsh tends to avoid forward guidance to keep the “family discussion” lively.
• The Fed will likely present a firm stance in pursuit of price stability, imparting a hawkish skew to its message.