INSIGHTS
Chart Pack: April
We share our insights on global macro views and review asset class returns in our Monthly Chart Pack.
Showing 87 results
Global Macro Views Teutonic Shift: The German Stimulus
Germany has approved a new spending package with hopes to boost defense and modernize its infrastructure.
Market Observations Into the Unknown: Liberation Day Tariffs
Which is worse: living with uncertainty or a resolution of uncertainty?
Global Macro Views The Rise of Equity Vigilantes
As inflation concerns rise and uncertainty around policy looms, a new vigilante may be emerging.
Global Macro Views Rise and Shine
Consumers may need to find an alternative to dying eggs this Easter with food inflation on the rise.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: William McChesney Martin’s Advice
The Fed is waiting on policies to take effect, and its reaction may draw criticism.
Global Macro Views Is the Bad News Worse than You Think?
The Congressional Budget Office’s assessment of an unstable federal budget may still be too optimistic.
Global Macro Views Stormy Skies Ahead
DeepSeek’s AI launch and US tariffs caused market instability and potentially exposed the market’s vulnerabilities.
Global Macro Views 2025 Global Economic Outlook
Our macroeconomic experts explore potential challenges and bright spots for the global economy in 2025.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Knock on Wood
The Fed knocks on wood as they watch the new administration’s policy moves and the impact on inflation.
Global Macro Views Cloudy with a Chance of Tariffs
We rank the countries that are most vulnerable to a potential universal tariff.
Market Observations To Weight or Not to Weight
We balance the tradeoffs between equal weight versus market-cap weighted benchmarks.
Global Macro Views Mortgage Rates Defy Gravity
We dive into why mortgage rates continue to surge despite the significant rate cuts in recent months.
Precision in Practice Navigating Changes to Fixed Income Liquidity
We discuss why liquidity plays a central role in US economic activity and how access to real-life data can help identify meaningful trends.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: A Drama in Three Acts
The Fed’s journey toward disinflation in 2024 is comparable to a three-act drama.
Global Macro Views Soaring Through September
The September jobs report indicates positive economic growth as the unemployment rate decreases and wages increase.
Global Macro Views The Fed’s Path Forward
We break down the Fed’s path toward policy adjustments.
Global Macro Views Cool, Sahm and Collected
The fear of recession begins to spread as unemployment rises in the US jobs report.
Global Macro Views We Told You So…
We believe markets should avoid pricing for a rate cut in September. Here’s why.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Will the Fed Swipe Left or Right?
We determine if the position of price stability will sway the Fed to restrict or ease policy.
Precision in Practice Hidden Complexity: Challenges of Managing to the Agg
The Agg fulfills a crucial role for investors, but replicating the benchmark is complicated. Discover our solution.
Fed Thoughts The Natural or Neutral Rate of Interest, or R* in Brief
We examine the natural or neutral rate of interest, also known as r*.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Playing with Blocks
We weigh the key risks that may impact the Federal Reserve’s judgment in the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Global Macro Views Commercial Real Estate Debt Wall
The commercial real estate debt wall may impact regional bank lenders’ profits in 2024.
Global Macro Views Inflation Pressures Rise in Japan
The Bank of Japan has lifted its policy rate out of negative territory this Spring.
Market Observations Reviewing Magnificent Seven Stocks
A group of seven top tech stocks outperformed the broader S&P 500® in 2023.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Boats Against the Current
The potential challenges the Fed faces in the fight against inflation.
Global Macro Views Marching towards a rate cut?
Global Economist Nick Tocchio speculates a potential rate cut following the December FOMC meeting.
Global Macro Views 2024 Global Economic Outlook
Our experts analyze the global economic landscape of 2024.
Market Observations Where to? The S&P 500®
Uber Technologies has made its arrival into the S&P 500®.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Gravitational Pull on Monetary Policy
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart explains the importance of how the Federal Reserve communicates its policy intentions.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Back to the Future
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart offers details on the Federal Reserve’s goal to keep the policy rate “higher for longer.”
Global Macro Views We Get Questions
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart and Global Economist Nicholas Tocchio answer client questions about current economic issues.
Market Observations The Nasdaq-100® Index Special Rebalance
We examine the details behind the rebalancing and what prompted it.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Last Mile
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart describes how the Federal Reserve (Fed) is approaching the last mile of its rate-hiking campaign.
Market Observations Modern Monetarism
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart explains why the monetary base is a useful recession indicator—when measured correctly.
Market Observations Beware the Ides of March
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart answers lingering questions from the market action during March.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Long and Short of Policy Choice
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart predicts March Federal Reserve (Fed) action and outlines the potential short- and long-term consequences.
Market Observations The Debt Ceiling: The Other Nuclear Threat
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart breaks down the debt ceiling for investors.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Fed & the Fisc
We share thoughts on the last FOMC meeting in 2022 and the challenges ahead in 2023.
Market Observations Ready, Set, Smile
Explore the forces driving US dollar strength and its impact on global benchmark performance.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Operating at a Loss
We review the arithmetic of inflation ahead of the November 1-2 FOMC meeting.
Market Observations The Price of Tightening
If the Fed is overly optimistic about the path to control inflation, current equity valuations may be rife for a correction.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Suspension of Disbelief
We review the July 26-27 FOMC meeting and the dangers of disinflation optimism.
Market Observations Who is in Charge?
Super-sized moves ahead? What the latest set of staggering data may mean for the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: That Was the Week That Was
What can we learn from the Wall Street Journal leak ahead of the June 13 FOMC meeting?
Market Observations Recession Risks
The Federal Reserve’s response to lost price stability puts the US economy on a path to recession. We discuss the risks.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Wake Me When September Ends
We explain why the Federal Open Market Committee might diverge from gradualism later this year.
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Market Observations LUNA(cy)
Investors should draw as many lessons as possible from the recent collapse of the stablecoin UST and its crypto token twin LUNA. We offer three.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Niagara Falls
With the Fed late in its turn toward containing inflation, fifty-basis-point dominoes should begin to fall.
Market Observations Reverse Engineering a Recession
Four popular predicators of recession may individually have predictive power for business-cycle turning.
Market Observations The Risk of Recession
We briefly outline our views on the risk of a recession in the US and Europe and how China-US relations are evolving.
Market Observations Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Reserve faces increasingly difficult choices amid large-scale inflation and shocks to both global aggregate supply and demand.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: War & Peace
As Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to redraw Europe, central bankers have a responsibility to act in both war and peace.
Fed Thoughts We Are Where We Are
What does the Federal Open Market Committee and pandemic Pelotons have in common? Find out in the latest Fed Thoughts.
Market Observations The Forgotten Secrets of the Hidden Temple
Will President Biden follow the script set in autumn 1979 or risk rocking the market boat? We explore precedents and presidents in the highly anticipated Fed chair appointment.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Swipe Right or Left on Chair Powell?
The current decision of note on monetary policy is not about action but personnel. Will President Biden choose to reappoint Fed Chair Jay Powell?
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Highway to the Danger Zone
Adjusting monetary policy can take the maneuvering of a professional pilot. How will the Fed manage the landing?
Market Observations Here We Go Again: The Debt Ceiling
What is the likelihood that the Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling? We review causes for worry and likely outcomes in the latest dramatic and costly standoff on Capitol Hill.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta Gambler
The house dealer, Fed Chair Jay Powell, has been pressed to the wall as a succession of his colleagues up the ante on an early exit.
Global Macro Views Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every Page
As the coronavirus boxes about the path of economic growth, the Global Macro Forum examines the worthiness of its opponents and the dangers of outcome-based investing.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central Bankers
Three behavioral traits of central bankers are shared around the world.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a Bug
The Federal Reserve will likely continue outcome-based rather than outlook-driven policymaking in the face of mounting inflation pressures and dollar depreciation.
Global Macro Views Global Macro Views: Turning the Tide
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
Market Observations The Monetary Wheels Go Round & Round
We highlight the recent interplay between savings rates, bank deposits, and the Fed’s balance sheet.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: The Zero Lower Bound Warps Time & Space
The Federal Reserve will likely be hesitant to change their messaging in light of the recent back-up in yields.
Fed Thoughts Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon?
How does the latest Treasury sell-off compare to previous episodes?
Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
Precision in Practice The New Kid on the Street
Tesla’s addition to the S&P 500® Index is official. What happens now?
Precision in Practice One for the Record Books
We look at the impact of the pandemic through the lens of the US credit markets.
Market Observations Aftershock
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the aftermath of the 2020 election and what could await President-elect Biden’s administration.
Precision in Practice Vote No on Volatility
With a looming US presidential election, our index professionals review the possibility of an uptick in election-related market volatility.
Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
Market Observations Stress Testing the Election
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines pre-election economic activity and its utility for assessing the 2020 election.
Market Observations Some Good News is Bad News
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses fiscal policy, incoming data, and the Mellon forecast.
Fed Thoughts Jay Powell the All Powerful
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s follow-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Fed Thoughts Bringing Tablets from the Mountaintop
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s strategy as asymmetric, ambiguous, and fit to the moment.
Market Observations Election Matters
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the potential implications of the 2020 election.
Precision in Practice A Balancing Act
How did the whipsawing market volatility impact index managers? We explore the challenges and critical considerations.
Fed Thoughts Notes on the Fed
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reviews changes to the Fed’s longer-term strategy.
Precision in Practice The New Kid in Town
Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500® Index could be imminent. Our experts review the implications for index managers.
Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
Fed Thoughts What Color is the Fed’s Parachute?
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s messaging and its appetite for more unconventional stimulus.
Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
Market Observations The Near-Term Fiscal Outlook
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the key provisions of the 2020 CARES Act.
Fed Thoughts What Just Happened? Fed Cuts Rates
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart unpacks the consequences of the Fed’s about-face.
Market Observations Years of Living Dangerously
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart offers his 2020 macro outlook and current investment map.
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Fed Thoughts Silence in the Mountains
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the Fed’s outlook for 2020.