Market Observations
Modern Monetarism and the Recession that Hasn’t Happened, Yet
Market Observations White Paper
June 2023
Authors & Contributors
The discussion around a US recession has been top of mind for the last year but how close are we really?
Economists have predicted an elevated risk of recession for the last year but continue to extend its onset. One potential explanation is the reliance on the traditional monetary base. Conversely, the modern monetary base, which adds reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs) to the traditional notion, may prove a more reliable option when assessing the risk of recession.
