Chart Pack: September
We share our insights on global macro views and review asset class returns in our Monthly Chart Pack.
Showing 91 results
The Fed’s Path Forward
We break down the Fed’s path toward policy adjustments.
Cool, Sahm and Collected
The fear of recession begins to spread as unemployment rises in the US jobs report.
We Told You So…
We believe markets should avoid pricing for a rate cut in September. Here’s why.
Fed Thoughts: Will the Fed Swipe Left or Right?
We determine if the position of price stability will sway the Fed to restrict or ease policy.
Hidden Complexity: Challenges of Managing to the Agg
The Agg fulfills a crucial role for investors, but replicating the benchmark is complicated. Discover our solution.
The Natural or Neutral Rate of Interest, or R* in Brief
We examine the natural or neutral rate of interest, also known as r*.
Fed Thoughts: Playing with Blocks
We weigh the key risks that may impact the Federal Reserve’s judgment in the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Proxy Voting Report Spring 2024
Read about the variety of topics Mellon voted on from July to December 2023.
Commercial Real Estate Debt Wall
The commercial real estate debt wall may impact regional bank lenders’ profits in 2024.
Inflation Pressures Rise in Japan
The Bank of Japan has lifted its policy rate out of negative territory this Spring.
Fed Thoughts: The Body Politic
How will the political landscape impact the timing on Federal Reserve’s policy shifts?
Reviewing Magnificent Seven Stocks
A group of seven top tech stocks outperformed the broader S&P 500® in 2023.
Fed Thoughts: Boats Against the Current
The potential challenges the Fed faces in the fight against inflation.
Marching towards a rate cut?
Global Economist Nick Tocchio speculates a potential rate cut following the December FOMC meeting.
2024 Global Economic Outlook
Our experts analyze the global economic landscape of 2024.
Where to? The S&P 500®
Uber Technologies has made its arrival into the S&P 500®.
Fed Thoughts: The Gravitational Pull on Monetary Policy
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart explains the importance of how the Federal Reserve communicates its policy intentions.
Fed Thoughts: Back to the Future
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart offers details on the Federal Reserve’s goal to keep the policy rate “higher for longer.”
We Get Questions
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart and Global Economist Nicholas Tocchio answer client questions about current economic issues.
Proxy Voting Report Fall 2023
Read about the variety of topics Mellon voted on during the 2023 proxy season.
The Nasdaq-100® Index Special Rebalance
We examine the details behind the rebalancing and what prompted it.
Fed Thoughts: The Last Mile
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart describes how the Federal Reserve (Fed) is approaching the last mile of its rate-hiking campaign.
Modern Monetarism
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart explains why the monetary base is a useful recession indicator—when measured correctly.
Beware the Ides of March
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart answers lingering questions from the market action during March.
Proxy Voting Report Spring 2023
Find out how we advocate for our clients’ best interests through engagement in the Spring 2023 Proxy Voting Report.
Fed Thoughts: The Long and Short of Policy Choice
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart predicts March Federal Reserve (Fed) action and outlines the potential short- and long-term consequences.
The Debt Ceiling: The Other Nuclear Threat
Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart breaks down the debt ceiling for investors.
Fed Thoughts: The Fed & the Fisc
We share thoughts on the last FOMC meeting in 2022 and the challenges ahead in 2023.
Ready, Set, Smile
Explore the forces driving US dollar strength and its impact on global benchmark performance.
Fed Thoughts: Operating at a Loss
We review the arithmetic of inflation ahead of the November 1-2 FOMC meeting.
The Price of Tightening
If the Fed is overly optimistic about the path to control inflation, current equity valuations may be rife for a correction.
Fed Thoughts: Suspension of Disbelief
We review the July 26-27 FOMC meeting and the dangers of disinflation optimism.
Who is in Charge?
Super-sized moves ahead? What the latest set of staggering data may mean for the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.
Fed Thoughts: That Was the Week That Was
What can we learn from the Wall Street Journal leak ahead of the June 13 FOMC meeting?
Recession Risks
The Federal Reserve’s response to lost price stability puts the US economy on a path to recession. We discuss the risks.
Fed Thoughts: Wake Me When September Ends
We explain why the Federal Open Market Committee might diverge from gradualism later this year.
LUNA(cy)
Investors should draw as many lessons as possible from the recent collapse of the stablecoin UST and its crypto token twin LUNA. We offer three.
Fed Thoughts: Niagara Falls
With the Fed late in its turn toward containing inflation, fifty-basis-point dominoes should begin to fall.
Reverse Engineering a Recession
Four popular predicators of recession may individually have predictive power for business-cycle turning.
The Risk of Recession
We briefly outline our views on the risk of a recession in the US and Europe and how China-US relations are evolving.
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The Federal Reserve faces increasingly difficult choices amid large-scale inflation and shocks to both global aggregate supply and demand.
Fed Thoughts: War & Peace
As Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to redraw Europe, central bankers have a responsibility to act in both war and peace.
We Are Where We Are
What does the Federal Open Market Committee and pandemic Pelotons have in common? Find out in the latest Fed Thoughts.
The Forgotten Secrets of the Hidden Temple
Will President Biden follow the script set in autumn 1979 or risk rocking the market boat? We explore precedents and presidents in the highly anticipated Fed chair appointment.
Fed Thoughts: Swipe Right or Left on Chair Powell?
The current decision of note on monetary policy is not about action but personnel. Will President Biden choose to reappoint Fed Chair Jay Powell?
Fed Thoughts: Highway to the Danger Zone
Adjusting monetary policy can take the maneuvering of a professional pilot. How will the Fed manage the landing?
Here We Go Again: The Debt Ceiling
What is the likelihood that the Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling? We review causes for worry and likely outcomes in the latest dramatic and costly standoff on Capitol Hill.
Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta Gambler
The house dealer, Fed Chair Jay Powell, has been pressed to the wall as a succession of his colleagues up the ante on an early exit.
Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every Page
As the coronavirus boxes about the path of economic growth, the Global Macro Forum examines the worthiness of its opponents and the dangers of outcome-based investing.
Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central Bankers
Three behavioral traits of central bankers are shared around the world.
Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a Bug
The Federal Reserve will likely continue outcome-based rather than outlook-driven policymaking in the face of mounting inflation pressures and dollar depreciation.
Global Macro Views: Turning the Tide
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
The Monetary Wheels Go Round & Round
We highlight the recent interplay between savings rates, bank deposits, and the Fed’s balance sheet.
Fed Thoughts: The Zero Lower Bound Warps Time & Space
The Federal Reserve will likely be hesitant to change their messaging in light of the recent back-up in yields.
Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon?
How does the latest Treasury sell-off compare to previous episodes?
Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
The New Kid on the Street
Tesla’s addition to the S&P 500® Index is official. What happens now?
One for the Record Books
We look at the impact of the pandemic through the lens of the US credit markets.
Aftershock
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the aftermath of the 2020 election and what could await President-elect Biden’s administration.
Vote No on Volatility
With a looming US presidential election, our index professionals review the possibility of an uptick in election-related market volatility.
Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
Stress Testing the Election
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines pre-election economic activity and its utility for assessing the 2020 election.
Some Good News is Bad News
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses fiscal policy, incoming data, and the Mellon forecast.
Jay Powell the All Powerful
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s follow-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Bringing Tablets from the Mountaintop
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s strategy as asymmetric, ambiguous, and fit to the moment.
Election Matters
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the potential implications of the 2020 election.
A Balancing Act
How did the whipsawing market volatility impact index managers? We explore the challenges and critical considerations.
Notes on the Fed
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reviews changes to the Fed’s longer-term strategy.
The New Kid in Town
Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500® Index could be imminent. Our experts review the implications for index managers.
Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
What Color is the Fed’s Parachute?
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s messaging and its appetite for more unconventional stimulus.
Global Macro Views
The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.
The Near-Term Fiscal Outlook
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the key provisions of the 2020 CARES Act.
What Just Happened? Fed Cuts Rates
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart unpacks the consequences of the Fed’s about-face.
Years of Living Dangerously
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart offers his 2020 macro outlook and current investment map.
Silence in the Mountains
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the Fed’s outlook for 2020.
A Conservative Party Win in the General Election
The Conservative Party’s general election win may spell certainty for Brexit but it also raises questions.
He Who Must Not Be Named
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the source of the Fed’s communication confusion.
The Right Stuff?
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the downstream effects of US-China trade policy on the macro outlook.
An Apt Place and an Awkward Time
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the Fed’s likely path for the rest of 2019.
Now Playing at a Theater of the Absurd Near You
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart expounds on the leadership shake-ups at the EU, ECB and IMF.
The Sound of Silence
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart evaluates whether the Fed’s empty spaces contain multitudes.
A Churchillian Moment
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart provides an outlook for trade, the US economy and the Fed.
A Riot is an Ugly Thing
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the disconnect between futures market expectations and the Fed’s likely path.
Intrigue and Trade
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the state of US-China trade policy.
Powell the Padawan
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the U.S. economy and the Fed’s change of heart.
Follow the Money
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s current emphasis on its balance sheet.
An “Unfaithfully Yours” Brexit
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential Brexit outcomes and the motivation of EU and UK officials.
Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart suggests Fed communications may be an unreliable predictor of policy.
Poles Apart
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential effects of the government shutdown on the Fed’s outlook.
A Really Big Show
Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart details the Fed’s goal of keeping “all the plates spinning.”