Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook January 2020
In this quarterly update on economics and financial markets, Chief Economist and Market Strategist Vincent Reinhart explains that some of the events risks that threatened the outlook, including a worsening of the China-US trade dispute, have diminished. As a result, US economic growth should be sustained into 2020 at about the modest pace of last year as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps its currently accommodative stance of policy unchanged. Because trade matters more to our trading partners, the positive news on US policy provides a more significant cyclical boost abroad. Pressures on costs gather momentum given the taut US labor market, pushing inflation above the Fed’s goal of 2 percent and narrowing corporate margins.
Mellon Investments Corporation ("Mellon") is a registered investment advisor and subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation ("BNY Mellon"). The Firm also includes assets managed by Mellon personnel acting as dual officers of affiliated companies. Prior to changing its legal name on January 2, 2019, the firm was defined as BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation ("BNY Mellon AMNA") a registered investment advisor and subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation ("BNY Mellon"). The Firm was formed on January 31, 2018, through the merger of The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC ("TBCAM") and Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC ("Standish") into Mellon Capital Management Corporation ("Mellon Capital"). AUM, client and employee counts are as of the most recent quarter end, unless noted otherwise. Firm Assets presented include non-discretionary assets as well as the notional exposure of overlay strategies. BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, encompassing BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and may also be used as a generic term to reference the Corporation as a whole or its various subsidiaries generally.
This information is not provided as a sales or advertising communication. It does not constitute investment advice. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Many factors affect performance including changes in market conditions and interest rates and in response to other economic, political, or financial developments. Past performance is not a guide to or indicative of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives outlined in this presentation will be achieved. This information is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations or projected returns of any particular product. Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and has not been verified by the Firm. The Firm makes no representations as to the accuracy or the completeness of any of the information herein.
The enclosed material is confidential and not to be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of the Firm. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of the Firm, which are subject to change and which the Firm does not undertake to update. Views expressed are subject to change rapidly as market and economic conditions dictate. Portfolio composition is also subject to change.
Mellon Investments (UK) Limited is an affiliate of the Firm located in London. Mellon Investments (UK) Limited provides investment management services and is a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Certain employees of Mellon Investments (UK) Limited may also act in the capacity as associated persons of the Firm and in such capacity may provide contracted research services to the Firm.
Employee of BNY Mellon Investment Management Singapore Pte. Limited who provides non-discretionary research services to the Firm and may also serve as sub-adviser to the Firm for certain client mandates.
Rankings include assets managed by BNY Mellon Asset Management and BNY Mellon Wealth Management.
Each ranking may not include the same mix of firms.
This portfolio data should not be relied upon as a complete listing of the Portfolio’s holdings (or top holdings) as information on particular holdings may be withheld if it is in the client’s best interest to do so. Portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and may not represent current or future portfolio composition.
The portfolio date is "as of" the date indicated.
There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account's portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed do not represent an account's entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account's portfolio holdings.
It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.
The allocation distribution and actual percentages may vary from time-to-time. The types of investments presented in the allocation chart will not always have the same comparable risks and returns. The actual performance of the portfolio will depend on the Investment Manager’s ability to identify and access appropriate investments, and balance assets to maximize return while minimizing its risk. The actual investments in the portfolio may or may not be the same or in the same proportion as those shown above. The Firm believes giving an proprietary Average Quality Credit rating to the holdings in a portfolio more accurately captures its characteristics versus using a single rating agencies ratings. The Firm has a ratings/number hierarchy whereby we assign a number between 0 (unrated bond) and 21 (S&P or Moody’s AAA) to all bonds in a portfolio based on the ratings of one or more of the rating agencies (with the lower of the 2 available agencies ratings prevailing), and then take a weighted numerical average of those bonds (with weighting based on each bonds percentage to the total portfolio assets). The resulting number is then compared back to the ratings/number hierarchy to determine a portfolio’s average quality. For example, if Moody's AAA, S&P AAA= 21, Moody's A1, S&P A+= 17, Moody's Baa1 and S&P BBB+=14, Moody's B1 and S&P B+=7. The numeric average of the 4 equally weighted holdings is 14.75, rounded up to the next whole number of 15. 15 converts to an average credit rating of S&P A/Moody's A2.
To the extent the strategy invests in foreign securities, its performance will be influenced by political, social and economic factors affecting investments in foreign companies. Special risks associated with investments in foreign companies include exposure to currency fluctuations and controls, less liquidity, less developed or less efficient trading markets, less governmental supervision and regulation, lack of comprehensive company information, political instability, greater market volatility, and differing auditing and legal standards.
Further, investments in foreign markets can be affected by a host of factors, including political or social conditions, diplomatic relations, limitations on removal of funds or assets or imposition of (or change in) exchange control or tax regulations in such markets. Additionally, investments denominated in a foreign currency will be subject to changes in exchange rates that may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment.
These risks are magnified in emerging markets and countries since they generally have less diverse and less mature economic structures and less stable political systems than those of developed countries. The strategy may use alternative investment techniques (such as derivatives) which carry additional risks. The low initial margin deposits normally required to establish a position in such instruments may permit a high degree of leverage. As a result, a relatively small movement in the price of a contract may result in a profit or loss that is high in proportion to the amount of funds actually placed as initial margin and may result in a disproportionate loss exceeding any margin deposited. Transactions in over-the-counter derivatives may involve additional risk as there is no exchange on which to close out a position, only the original counterparty. Such transactions may therefore be difficult to liquidate, to value, or to assess the exposure. The strategy may at times use certain types of investment derivatives, such as options, futures, forwards and swaps. These instruments involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than, the risks presented by more traditional investments.
The Firm sector models use regression analysis such as multi-linear data inputs, panel data, and probit function. Variables that the models take into account are: PMI, US Core CPI, Fed Fund rate, 3-month Libor, 3-month T-bill rate, foreign purchases of US Government bonds, Commodity Indices , Capacity Utilization, Deficit as a percent of GDP, S&P 500 return, Chicago Fed Index, IGOV, US output gap, Europe Core CPI, US unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate, and slope of the yield curve. Assumptions made are that samples are representative of the population for the inference prediction; regression residuals are approximately normally distributed, uncorrelated, and have constant volatility; no high degrees of multi-colinearity in the independent variables; variable sensitivity remains constant in the short term; and no structural shift in the short term.
Mellon claims compliance with the CFA Institute Asset Manager Code of Professional Conduct. This claim has not been verified by CFA Institute.
The indices referred to herein are used for comparative and informational purposes only and have been selected because they are generally considered to be representative of certain markets. Comparisons to indices as benchmarks have limitations because indices have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from the portfolio, investment or hedge to which they are compared. The providers of the indices referred to herein are not affiliated with Mellon, do not endorse, sponsor, sell or promote the investment strategies or products mentioned herein and they make no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the products and strategies described herein. Please see Mellon.com for important index licensing information.