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Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta Gambler Fed Thoughts
August 2021

Fed Thoughts: The Potomac River Delta Gambler

The house dealer, Fed Chair Jay Powell, has been pressed to the wall as a succession of his colleagues up the ante on an early exit.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every Page Global Macro Views
August 2021

Global Macro Views: Read the Footnote, Every Page

As the coronavirus boxes about the path of economic growth, the Global Macro Forum examines the worthiness of its opponents and the dangers of outcome-based investing.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central Bankers Fed Thoughts
July 2021

Fed Thoughts: The Sociology of Central Bankers

Three behavioral traits of central bankers are shared around the world.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook July 2021 Global Macro Views
July 2021

Quarterly Economic Outlook

A quarterly update on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
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Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a Bug Fed Thoughts
June 2021

Fed Thoughts: A Feature, Not a Bug

The Federal Reserve will likely continue outcome-based rather than outlook-driven policymaking in the face of mounting inflation pressures and dollar depreciation.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views: Turning the Tide Global Macro Views
May 2021

Global Macro Views: Turning the Tide

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook April 2021 Global Macro Views
April 2021

Quarterly Economic Outlook

A quarterly update on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
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The Monetary Wheels Go Round & Round Market Observations
March 2021

The Monetary Wheels Go Round & Round

We highlight the recent interplay between savings rates, bank deposits, and the Fed’s balance sheet.

Market Observations | White Paper
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2020 Proxy Voting Report Precision with Purpose
March 2021

2020 Proxy Voting Report

Our second annual report highlights our engagement and proxy voting activities in 2020.

Precision with Purpose | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: The Zero Lower Bound Warps Time & Space Fed Thoughts
March 2021

Fed Thoughts: The Zero Lower Bound Warps Time & Space

The Federal Reserve will likely be hesitant to change their messaging in light of the recent back-up in yields.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon? Fed Thoughts
March 2021

Fed Thoughts: Bond Marketageddon?

How does the latest Treasury sell-off compare to previous episodes?

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
January 2021

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook January 2021 Global Macro Views
January 2021

Quarterly Economic Outlook

A quarterly update on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
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The New Kid on the Street Precision in Practice
December 2020

The New Kid on the Street

Tesla’s addition to the S&P 500® Index is official. What happens now?

Precision in Practice | Article
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One for the Record Books: US Investment Grade Credit New Issuance in 2020 Precision in Practice
December 2020

One for the Record Books

We look at the impact of the pandemic through the lens of the US credit markets.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Election Matters: Aftershock Market Observations
November 2020

Aftershock

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the aftermath of the 2020 election and what could await President-elect Biden’s administration.

Market Observations | Article
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Vote No on Volatility Precision in Practice
October 2020

Vote No on Volatility

With a looming US presidential election, our index professionals review the possibility of an uptick in election-related market volatility.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Global Macro Views October 2020 Global Macro Views
October 2020

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook October 2020 Global Macro Views
October 2020

Quarterly Economic Outlook

A quarterly update replay on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
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A Stress Test: Effects of Economic Outcomes on Presidential Elections Market Observations
October 2020

Stress Testing the Election

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines pre-election economic activity and its utility for assessing the 2020 election.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Some of the Good News is Bad News Market Observations
September 2020

Some Good News is Bad News

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses fiscal policy, incoming data, and the Mellon forecast.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Jay Powell the All Powerful Fed Thoughts
September 2020

Jay Powell the All Powerful

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s follow-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Fed Thoughts | Article
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Bringing Tablets Down from the Virtual Mountaintop Fed Thoughts
September 2020

Bringing Tablets from the Mountaintop

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the Fed’s strategy as asymmetric, ambiguous, and fit to the moment.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Election Matters Market Observations
September 2020

Election Matters

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the potential implications of the 2020 election.

Market Observations | White Paper
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A Balancing Act Precision in Practice
September 2020

A Balancing Act

How did the whipsawing market volatility impact index managers? We explore the challenges and critical considerations.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Notes on the Fed Fed Thoughts
September 2020

Notes on the Fed

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reviews changes to the Fed’s longer-term strategy.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The New Kid in Town Precision in Practice
September 2020

The New Kid in Town

Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500® Index could be imminent. Our experts review the implications for index managers.

Precision in Practice | Article
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
August 2020

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook July 2020 Global Macro Views
July 2020

Quarterly Economic Outlook

A quarterly update replay on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
Watch
What Color is the Fed’s Parachute? Fed Thoughts
June 2020

What Color is the Fed’s Parachute?

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s messaging and its appetite for more unconventional stimulus.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
May 2020

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Forum offers its outlook for developed and emerging economies.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook April 2020 Global Macro Views
April 2020

Quarterly Economic Outlook April 2020

A quarterly update replay on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
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The Near-Term Fiscal Outlook Market Observations
April 2020

The Near-Term Fiscal Outlook

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart describes the key provisions of the 2020 CARES Act.

Market Observations | Article
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2019 Mellon Proxy Voting Report Precision with Purpose
March 2020

2019 Mellon Proxy Voting Report

Mellon’s proxy voting decisions seek the best long-term economic outcome for all stakeholders.

Precision with Purpose | White Paper
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What Just Happened? Fed Cuts Rates Fed Thoughts
March 2020

What Just Happened? Fed Cuts Rates

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart unpacks the consequences of the Fed’s about-face.

Fed Thoughts | Article
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Economic & Market Observations: Years of Living Dangerously Market Observations
February 2020

Years of Living Dangerously

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart offers his 2020 macro outlook and current investment map.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Silence in the Mountains Fed Thoughts
January 2020

Silence in the Mountains

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the Fed’s outlook for 2020.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook January 2020 Global Macro Views
January 2020

Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook January 2020

A quarterly update replay on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
Watch
A Conservative Party Win in the General Election Market Observations
December 2019

A Conservative Party Win in the General Election

The Conservative Party’s general election win may spell certainty for Brexit but it also raises questions.

Market Observations | Article
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He Who Must Not Be Named Fed Thoughts
December 2019

He Who Must Not Be Named

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the source of the Fed’s communication confusion.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Right Stuff? Market Observations
October 2019

The Right Stuff?

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the downstream effects of US-China trade policy on the macro outlook.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook October 2019 Global Macro Views
October 2019

Mellon Webex Series: Quarterly Economic Outlook October 2019

A quarterly update replay on economics and financial markets.

Global Macro Views | Video
Watch
An Apt Place and an Awkward Time Fed Thoughts
September 2019

An Apt Place and an Awkward Time

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the Fed’s likely path for the rest of 2019.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Now Playing at a Theater of the Absurd Near You Fed Thoughts
July 2019

Now Playing at a Theater of the Absurd Near You

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart expounds on the leadership shake-ups at the EU, ECB and IMF.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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The Sound of Silence Fed Thoughts
July 2019

The Sound of Silence

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart evaluates whether the Fed’s empty spaces contain multitudes.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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A Churchillian Moment Market Observations
July 2019

A Churchillian Moment

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart provides an outlook for trade, the US economy and the Fed.

Market Observations | White Paper
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A Riot is an Ugly Thing Fed Thoughts
June 2019

A Riot is an Ugly Thing

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart considers the disconnect between futures market expectations and the Fed’s likely path.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Intrigue and Trade Market Observations
June 2019

Intrigue and Trade

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the state of US-China trade policy.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Powell the Padawan Market Observations
May 2019

Powell the Padawan

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart examines the U.S. economy and the Fed’s change of heart.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Follow the Money Fed Thoughts
March 2019

Follow the Money

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the Fed’s current emphasis on its balance sheet.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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An “Unfaithfully Yours” Brexit Market Observations
March 2019

An “Unfaithfully Yours” Brexit

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential Brexit outcomes and the motivation of EU and UK officials.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain (PNATTMBTC) Fed Thoughts
February 2019

Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart suggests Fed communications may be an unreliable predictor of policy.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Poles Apart Fed Thoughts
January 2019

Poles Apart

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses potential effects of the government shutdown on the Fed’s outlook.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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A Really Big Show Market Observations
January 2019

A Really Big Show

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart details the Fed’s goal of keeping “all the plates spinning.”

Market Observations | White Paper
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Wait Until Dark Fed Thoughts
December 2018

Wait Until Dark

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart explains his outlook for Fed action when the "lights go out."

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Into Thin Air Market Observations
November 2018

Into Thin Air

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses his views on the Fed’s steady climb.

Market Observations | White Paper
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October Fright Fest Market Observations
October 2018

October Fright Fest

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reviews a recent slasher movie - Global Equity Markets in October.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Trump, Trade, Twisters, and Trailer Parks Market Observations
October 2018

Trump, Trade, Twisters, and Trailer Parks

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reveals his expectations for the global economy and markets.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Stargazing in the Mountains Fed Thoughts
September 2018

Stargazing in the Mountains

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart contemplates the next Fed moves.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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When will Technological Progress Show Up in Productivity Statistics? Market Observations
September 2018

When will Technological Progress Show Up in Productivity Statistics?

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart addresses slow productivity growth despite technological progress.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Lattice Work Fed Thoughts
July 2018

Lattice Work

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the implications from the Fed's lattice work.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Making Way for China A: Access the Onshore China Equity Market Precision in Practice
July 2018

Making Way for China A: Access the Onshore China Equity Market

The Equity Indexing team examines the implications of MSCI adding China A shares to their indexes.

Precision in Practice | White Paper
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Passive Aggressive Fed Thoughts
June 2018

Passive Aggressive

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart outlines the challenges facing Chair Powell in continuing to climb the Yellen staircase.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Zombie Apocalypse Fed Thoughts
April 2018

Zombie Apocalypse

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart highlights why a zombie apocalypse may seem more likely than a Fed rate hike in May.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Pass the Popcorn, Mr. President Market Observations
April 2018

Pass the Popcorn, Mr. President

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart doesn't expect a significant impact from trade wars, but dramatic headlines will likely persist.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Field Notes: Observing the International Bureaucrat Market Observations
April 2018

Field Notes: Observing the International Bureaucrat

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart reveals the synchronous global expansion is more like a Great Convergence.

Market Observations | White Paper
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Welcome to the Job, Jay Fed Thoughts
February 2018

Welcome to the Job, Jay

When Federal Chair Powell opens a crisis management handbook, he will learn the first rule about a significant asset price move.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Interregnum Fed Thoughts
January 2018

Interregnum

Chief Economist Reinhart’s thoughts on the upcoming FOMC Meeting.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Song of the Thin Man Fed Thoughts
December 2017

Song of the Thin Man

Chief Economist Reinhart’s views on the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Fed Thoughts | White Paper
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Global Macro Views Global Macro Views
December 2017

Global Macro Views

The Global Macro Committee offers an upbeat take on the global economy.

Global Macro Views | White Paper
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Collateral Consequences, Capital Flows, and Commodity Prices Market Observations
November 2017

Collateral Consequences, Capital Flows, and Commodity Prices

Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart discusses the effects of recent unconventional central bank policies.

Market Observations | White Paper
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